By Adan Makina
Email: adan.makina@gmail.com


Millions of people across the world have been reveling in commemoration of the beginning of the year Two Thousand and Ten (2010) of the Gregorian calendar corresponding to Muharran 15, 1431 of the Islamic calendar. In some parts of the world especially in Africa, an exclusive partial eclipse of the moon was sighted while in some other regions a blue moon shone in the heavens-phenomenon experienced every 2.7 years. The next blue moon is expected to happen in August 2012. The bluish moon, according to cosmologists and astronomers, is attributed to the dust and other chemicals emitted by the lower heavens. Volcanic ash and other chemical reactions on earth coupled with the rays of the moon and the stars cause the outer atmosphere to turn bluish. The partial eclipse of the moon must have been a source of solace for many who turn to the heavens for divine guidance.

While millions of people across the globe celebrated the fruits of peace and liberty, there are other millions who continue to experience insecurity, hunger, illiteracy, thirst, political instability, poor governance, and a host of other ills caused by Mother Nature and by callous fellow humans. A prime example is the tiny nation of Somalia in the Horn of Africa. Somalia remained a democracy from its inception in 1960 until 1969 when a group of military officers took over the helm after the sudden assassination of the then democratically elected civilian president, Abdirashid Ali Shermarke. Since that goes around comes around, the tiny Horn of Africa nation descended into chaos when the military government headed by Major General Mohamed Siyad Barre was overthrown by a ragtag militia lead by General Aidid in 1991. Aidid died a few years later after being hit by a stray bullet from a warring faction that was in hot pursuit. To this day, Aidid’s followers commemorate the day he died for they consider him to have been a hero and a saint.

The ruling junta applied brutal force to advance its agenda. The government trade and marketing strategy was one based on monopoly where select agencies delivered goods and services to the public. There was hardly any sort of privatization. The president and his henchmen enjoyed the fruits of independence while the rest suffered. The military government, which espoused opportunistic, cunning, and arrogant illegitimate political behavior, opposed any from of protests or demonstrations, peaceful or aggressive by university students or the general population. Thus, most Somalis have been raised in a land of aggression, poor governance, and intolerance. Undoubtedly, some of those bad leadership traits deliberately filtered into their thoughts and processes. Immense pressure from the government-operated security apparatus known as the National Security Service (NSS) eroded the people’s ability to think effectively in terms of leadership.

Task conflict, dysfunctional conflict, and potential opposition to government operations retarded any prospects for compromise. The absence of reallocation of resources, unclear performance evaluation systems, low trust, zero-sum reward practices, and lack of promotion opportunities hampered the people’s prospects for leadership success. In a nutshell, the confused and convoluted form of leadership style espoused by the military regime ultimately led to the disintegration of Somalia.

As I write, the religiously-inclined Al-shabab faction that is in control of the central and southern regions of Somalia has issued a stern warning to all forces-domestic and foreign-who are engaged in the pacification of Somalia. The leaders of Al-shabab are biting their lips and pointing fingers at the United Nations and the United States. In a show of force, Al-shabab paraded hundreds of newly-graduated fighters in the streets of Mogadishu.

Like the past unsympathetic warlords, Al-shabab and Hizbul Islam have no desire for negotiations and reconciliations. Recently, telephonic debates between Fu’aad Shongole, the man responsible for the propagation of Al-shabab’s religious and political ideology and the highly-educated Nairobi-based Sheikh Umal Muhammad ended in disarray. According to Fu’aad Shongole, Sheikh Umal is nothing but an exile cowering behind safety granted to him by disbelievers and the enemies of Islam. Shongole challenged Sheikh Umal to get out of his hideout and come to Somalia to defend his people and nation from the scourge of the disbelievers. On the other hand, Sheikh Umal referred to the youth fighting alongside the leaders of Al-shabab as “misled”. He further pointed how those who are misleading the youth will be held accountable on the Day of Judgment. When two learned Muslim scholars fail to compromise, we are bound to believe that upheaval and anarchy will prevail instead. We could come to the broad assumption that neither Al-shabab nor Hizbul Islam has genuine maslaha (public interest) at heart and in practice. Misinterpretation and misunderstanding of the Qur’an, distortion of the Hadith and failure to apply logic and philosophy has driven Somalia and the entire Muslim world into confusion. Whereas, the Qur’an is plain and clear as to how to deter fitnah-an Arabic term that may be translated to mean sedition, persecution, and disbelief. (8:39) "So fight them until there is no more disbelief (fitnah) and all submit to the religion of Allah alone" (from translation of Muhammad Al-Hilali & Muhsin Khan). (8:39) "And fight with them until there is no more persecution (fitnah) and religion should be only for Allah" (from translation of Sher Ali, Shakir, Pickthall, Arberry).

Leaders who give due respect to maslaha are known to respect the rights of their people and their neighbors and abhor belligerence; they are the kind of leaders who value human life and property; they give importance to religious and secular education; they look after the rights of women, children, and the elderly; they provide security and ensure the safety of their subjects, and they advance their nations in all aspects be it be militarily, economically, and politically. Neither Al-shabab nor Hizbul Islam nor the succession of past governments had determined the importance of the aforementioned traits.

The leaders of Al-shabab have been quoted as saying that they are willing to send fighters across to Yemen not necessarily to fight or give support to the separatist Houthi Shia rebels fighting the Yemeni government headed by Ali Abdala Saleh but perhaps to fight alongside Al-Qaida. Also in the past, a succession of its leaders issued threatening statements castigating the governments of Kenya and Ethiopia respectively. Though these statements may be regarded as mere mouth-bashing and tongue-lashing common with dysfunctional guerilla fighters, they are aiming at nothing else except a declaration of war. Without an iota doubt, Al-shabab and Hizbul Islam have sizable followers in Somalia, around the region, and perhaps the world over. These two darlings of the sword of annihilation previously claimed that they are in support of the values and ideals of Al-Qaida-meaning that Al-shabab and Hizbul Islam are fighting proxy wars. The presence of unspecified foreign fighters in Somalia supplying the necessary technical and psychological expertise will create unnecessary deaths and lead to a protracted war without end.

On the other hand, Somalia’s transitional government is devising a war plan that is meant to cleanse the country from Al-shabab menace. With the help of fierce firepower from the African Union troops in the country, the federal government aims to secure the areas under Al-shabab control within a short time. Hundreds if not thousands of government troops trained in Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti, and Rwanda are expected in the country soon to take part in the all-out-war against the insurgents wrecking havoc in an already beleaguered, impoverished, and war-ravaged nation. The anticipated massive mobilization of troops and hardware by the Somali government could lead to the unexpected unification of the forces of Al-shabab and the hard-line Hizbul Islam group led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys who is wanted in the west for terrorism related activities.

The two factions are on the process of establishing an emirate for the Horn of African nation. They intend to have a Somalia governed by an Emir-a powerful caliph who will have absolute power over the affairs and foundations of the entire nation while eyeing further expansion to neighboring countries. The imaginary caliphate will eventually extend invitations to foreign fighters driven by religious zeal so that the theocratic beliefs of the Emir may be transported across Somalia’s borders. The aftermath of the reverberating blitzkrieg will obviously lead to a humanitarian disaster. Thus, Somalia will be transformed into a new killing field where corpses will litter everywhere- a scene reminiscent of the era of the black plague-the pandemic bubonic plague that almost decimated the population of Europe between the years 1348 and 1350. Millions of unfortunate citizens will be affected with refugees spilling over to neighboring countries and across the shark-infested waters of the Indian Ocean and even beyond. There will be an increase in banditry, highway robberies, and road blocks; there will be an escalation of piracy, suicide bombings, and environmental pollution; neighboring countries will seal their borders for fear of extremist infiltrations. Increased naval and aerial bombardments and reconnaissance will blanket Somali airspace. Somalia is a land devoid of shelters and bunkers. Businesses will come to a standstill, hospitals will run out of medicine; there will be shortages of food, taps will run dry, and in the initial end no one will emerge the winner. After the dust settles, a year later while the rest of the world revels at the start of another new year and all eyes turn heavenward for another eclipse or another unique blue moon, an entourage from the international community may set foot on the battleground to assess the damage only to find zombies, walking skeletons, and disfigured bodies ready to bid them goodbye for the other world. At this juncture, all extremists will have disappeared into thin air and plotting novel strategies from a newly-acquired staging ground. A cat and mouse game, isn’t it?







The opinions contained in this article are solely those of the writer, and it does not represent the editorial opinions of Banadir24 online